It is one of the most used and abused cliches of football, and there is no doubt that we will be hearing it all Summer when Germany plays in South Africa. But the reality is that the quote from the English legend Gary Lineker saying football is a game played by 22 men and Germany always win at the end of the game is wrong, and at the end of the day the Germans are pretty average when it comes to deciding the games just before full-time. Games at European and World Cup finals are normally decided in the first part of the 2nd half – also the games won by Germany.

Footballer with many famous quotes

Gary Lineker was one of the biggest names in English football in the 80s, where he not only played in the English Premiership but also between 1986 and 1989 was a major star in the Spanish league for FC Barcelona. The late 80s were also the years when the striker peaked at a international level, and in 1986 Lineker was an integral part of the English team participating in the World Cup in Mexico. After playing for FC Barcelona Lineker went back to England joining Tottenham, where his many goals were a huge influence in the success of his team until he left the side in 1992.

As sharp as Lineker was on the field, he was just as unsharp  in the interviews after the games. One of his quotes that got international attention was : ”There's no in between - you're either good or bad. We were in between”. Another gem from linekers collection that did wonders for the perceived intelligence of footballers was : ”The World Cup is every 4 years, so it's going to be a perennial problem”.

But nomatter  the quality or lack thereof, of the other quotes from Gary Lineker one still stands as evidence of German efficiency in football : ”Soccer is a game for 22 people that run around, play the ball, and one referee who makes a slew of mistakes, and in the end Germany always wins”. If the Germans during the European or World Championship scores a deciding goal late in the game, Linekers quote will be used as evidence of the German strength. But the question is if the Germans actually should be famous for the ability of winning late in the game, or this quote from Lineker is at the same standard as the others he is famous for.

The Germans are actually average when it comes to deciding goals late in the game

Gary Lineker made his first appearance for the English national side in 1984, and a analysis of his quote should therefore start from this year including all games from the European and World Championship-tournaments from the European Championship in France in 1984 up until the European Championship in Austria & Switzerland in 2008. The analysis includes all deciding goals from the tournaments scored within the normal 90 minutes of the game, since deciding goals scored in extra time/penalty shooutouts per definition will be scored late in the game. The deciding goal is defined as the goal, that seemed to ”close” the game. If a team wins by 4-1 after beeing in front by 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1 and 4-1, the deciding goal is the 2-0 since the opponents wasnt able to overcome this deficit. To decide if the Germans are better at scoring deciding goals at the end of the game, the analysis doesnt only consist of what time during the games the deciding goals were scored by all participants in the European and World Championsihps, but also consists of the approach towards the deciding goals scored by the Germans against their opponents and deciding goals scored by the opponents against Germany.

All deciding goals scored at European & World Championships

1. - 20. minute :                                                                19.1%

21. - 40. minute :                                                              19.9%

41. - 50. minute :                                                              11.2%

51. - 70. minute:                                                               26.4%

71. - 90. minute :                                                              23.4%

The statistic is based on 376 deciding goals, and gives an impression of the simple fact that teams getting an early lead normally will win the game. The impression is also the logical that a late lead will normally secure a victory, since the opponents will have very little time to strike back.

Deciding goals scored by the Germans :

1. - 20. minute :                                                                21.1%

21. - 40. minute :                                                              24.3%

41. - 50. minute :                                                              12.1%

51. - 70. minute :                                                              15.2%

71. - 90. minute :                                                              27.3%

The statistic is based on 33 deciding goals from the Germans against their opponents at a European or World Championship tournament, and shows only minor differences between the Germans and the other teams participating in the tournaments. One of the differences is that the Germans seem to be better at holding onto a lead achieved in the 1st half than most of their competitors.

Deciding goals scored against the Germans :

1. - 20. minute :                                                                13.3%

21. - 20. minute :                                                              13.3%

41. - 50. minute :                                                              13.3%

51. - 70. minute:                                                               26.7%

71. - 90. minute :                                                              33.3%

The interesting thing in this statistic, that is based on 14 games, is that the deciding goals against the Germans very often are scored late in the game – at a time, when Germany according to the quote from Gary Lineker should be better than anybody else.

There will still be 22 players on the pitch

Another interesting aspect of the discussion if the Germans are invincible late in the game, is the average number of minutes it takes for them to score deciding goals compared to the similar number of minutes it takes for the other teams participating in European and World Cup finals to score deciding goals. On average it takes 48.2 minutes for a team to score a diciding goal at the European and World Cup finals, while the Germans in average need 49.1 minutes to score a deciding goal. When a deciding goal is scored against Germany, it is in average after 59.8 minutes. So also in this connection the famour quote from Gary Lineker seems to be wrong.

From 1984 to 2008 the Germans hold a 5-1 record going into extra time/penalty shootout. But the Germans seem to have lost a major part of their strengths when it comes to winning during this part of the game, since the last time they went into extra time they lost. That even happened at home against the later World Champions from Italy at the 2006 World Cup, where the Italians scored twice in the extra time to secure a 2-0 victory in the semifinal.

But one part of the Gary Lineker quote will however standup to scrutiny during the World Cup whenever Germany plays. There will be 22 players at the beginning of every game in South Africa.